Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
