Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
